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Leaked Draft Text marks a “Suicide Pact”

December 17, 2009

Hot off the press: A supposed leaked draft text of the COP 15 treaty indicates an unacceptable emissions reduction target of 550ppm for Developed Countries (Annex 1), which translates into a temperature rise of 3 degrees celsius.

According to the Guardian, there exists a gap of up to 4.2 gigatonnes of carbon emissions between the present pledges and the required level of 44 gigatonnes which is necessary to stay below a 2-degree temperature rise.

The resultant 3-degree rise could pose devastating risks for coastal and island nations, including Singapore. Tens to hundreds of millions more people could be flooded each year due to rising sea levels brought on by a 3-degree rise. Developing countries are not the only ones threatened by this preposterous possibility. Large urbanised coastal cities such as Tokyo, London and New York also face imminent inundation.

Moreover, some sources have speculated that the actual numbers for the current proposals are almost certainly even higher than the leaked document concludes. Climate Interactive, using an MIT software model, currently estimates we’ll see temperature increases of 3.9
degrees and a co2 concentration of 770 ppm by the year 2100.

The document has been described by NGOs as “explosive” and “extraordinarily dangerous situation for humanity” and by some developing country delegates as nothing less than a “suicide pact”. The furore caused by the leaked text has added a dampener on the negotiation’s near-desperate state.

Live from COP 15
Amira
ECO Singapore

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4 Comments leave one →
  1. terence permalink
    December 18, 2009 1:53 pm

    Isn’t it weird that the Guardian seem to be ‘leaking’ so many top-secret drafts recently? Being eager to point out to potential loopholes in the negoitiations is good, but publishing news without carefully analyzing their source is just bad journalism.

    This document is apparently a pre-Copenhagen analysis (550ppm => +3 deg C), and does not take into account the latest reductions pledged (so far) by parties. But right now the key question remains whether COP15 can deliver the developed countries target (450ppm => +2 deg C) or the developing countries request (350ppm => +1.5 deg C)

    Source:
    http://climateprogress.org/2009/12/17/copenhagen-is-not-on-the-verge-of-signing-a-treaty-that-would-lock-in-3c-warming/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+climateprogress%2FlCrX+(Climate+Progress)&utm_content=Google+Reader

  2. terence permalink
    December 18, 2009 2:43 pm

    Isn’t it weird that the Guardian seem to be ‘leaking’ so many top-secret drafts recently? Being eager to point out to potential loopholes in the negoitiations is good, but publishing news without carefully analyzing their source is just bad journalism.

    This document is apparently a pre-Copenhagen analysis (550ppm => +3 deg C), and does not take into account the latest reductions pledged (so far) by parties. But right now the key question remains whether COP15 can deliver the developed countries target (450ppm => +2 deg C) or the developing countries request (350ppm => +1.5 deg C)

    Source:
    http://climateprogress.org/2009/12/17/copenhagen-is-not-on-the-verge-of-signing-a-treaty-that-would-lock-in-3c-warming/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+climateprogress%2FlCrX+(Climate+Progress)&utm_content=Google+Reader

  3. December 18, 2009 9:39 pm

    Hey Terence,

    Yeah, I’ve noticed the same too—for many of the climate talks the papers have been racing to “leak texts”. I guess that’s what happens when controversial issues are at stake.

    The one we linked was actually put up on the UNFCCC website, and made a couple of rounds in the NGO circle–which is where the Guardian may have gotten it from. According to insiders in the negotiations, a couple of texts (including the Danish one) had been leaked on purpose. The 550ppm + 3 degrees one had indeed surfaced a couple of times prior to Copenhagen, but was apparently resurfaced last Thursday by some Annex 1 countries much to the frustration of the rest of the floor. It was apparently leaked to signal the growing frustration of the non-Annex 1 countries over the stalemate.

    :)cheers, amira.

  4. December 18, 2009 10:47 pm

    Guardian’s investigative journalism is one of the best in UK. Did anyone check out its tax evasion special? It was so good that Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse had to pursue a gag order on Guardian!

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